The Tipping Point Nobody Announced

For two decades, RFID occupied an awkward middle space in retail….too expensive to ignore, too complicated to fully embrace. Pilots launched. Mandates were issued. ROI projections circulated in boardrooms. And yet, adoption stuttered.

That era is over. Today represents something qualitatively different from every previous wave of RFID enthusiasm. The technology has not merely improved, it has crossed a threshold where the cost of not deploying it is now visibly greater than the cost of implementation. According to Accenture research, 93% of North American retailers are using RFID technology in some capacity, with the global RFID market valued at $17.12 billion in 2025 and projected to reach $46.2 billion by 2034. More telling than the market size figures, however, are the stories playing out on store floors, in distribution centers, and deep inside the supply chains of the world’s largest retailers — stories about people working differently, inventory behaving predictably, and data finally earning its status as a strategic asset.

Today we examine what is actually happening across three dimensions: how RFID is transforming the role of the store associate, what genuine inventory visibility now looks like in practice, and how the data flowing from billions of tagged items is reshaping decision-making across the supply chain. It also looks honestly at where implementation still falls short, and what the next chapter likely holds.

Let’s get into it……

Part One: The Associate Reimagined

The Hidden Labor Crisis RFID Is Quietly Solving

Before understanding what RFID does for store associates, it helps to understand what was being done to them. Retail associate turnover has remained one of the industry’s most persistent and costly problems. The culprit, more often than pay or schedule, has been the nature of the work itself: repetitive, manual, and largely disconnected from anything resembling meaningful customer interaction.

Associates across North America have routinely spent the majority of their shifts counting inventory, searching for misplaced items, scanning barcodes one at a time, and managing the operational chaos created by inaccurate stock records. These tasks are not just tedious — they are the direct result of not knowing where things are. When inventory data is unreliable, every shift begins with a reconciliation problem that eats hours before a single customer is served.

RFID eliminates this structural burden at its source. Cycle counts that once consumed entire store teams for hours can now be completed in under 30 minutes for a store carrying 50,000 items. The labor redirected from manual counting toward customer-facing work is not marginal — it is transformational.

The National Retail Federation reported that at one major home improvement retailer, associates were spending 60% of their time on backroom tasks and just 40% with customers. After RFID implementation, those ratios inverted. The same report, citing Greg Buzek of IHL Group, captured the core insight: “How much time do you waste when an associate is running around the store trying to find stuff? There is a huge opportunity to improve the experience when the customer comes to the store and interacts with the associate.”

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Hey Friends,

It's been a busy week in retail. From high-profile leadership moves to existential warnings about the future of the physical store, the industry is clearly in a moment of transition. Some companies are cutting and consolidating. Others are building and experimenting. And just about everyone is trying to figure out what role AI is going to play in their future. Here's everything that happened.

Here’s what we are talking about today: Nike is cutting another 1,400 jobs as its turnaround effort pushes deeper into the tech organization -- and the executive it shed last year just landed the top job at Lululemon. We're looking at a new UBS forecast that says more than 40,000 stores could close over the next five years, and at Bed Bath & Beyond doing a very public reversal on California. On the digital side, online grocery sales are on track to approach half a trillion dollars by 2028, Sam's Club is delivering orders in under an hour, Ulta Beauty is letting you shop directly through Google's AI, and Aerie is going the opposite direction by banning AI from its creator program entirely. And Nestlé is selling Blue Bottle Coffee to the company behind Luckin Coffee.

Let's get into it……

Nike Keeps Cutting -- and Lululemon Gets the Benefit

The story connecting several of this week’s headlines is the ongoing shake-up at Nike. As part of its “Win Now” turnaround strategy, Nike announced it’s cutting about 1,400 jobs across its global operations, with the majority of those roles sitting in the tech department. Chief Operating Officer Venkatesh Alagirisamy framed the move as a push toward simplicity: the company is consolidating its technology footprint down to two hubs -- the Philip H. Knight Campus and the Nike India Technology Center -- and plans to rely more heavily on automation to move faster. The restructure also includes changes to its Air Manufacturing Innovation facilities and the integration of its Materials Supply Chain team into its broader Footwear and Apparel Supply Chain organization.

This is hardly the first time Nike has gone through something like this. CEO Elliott Hill has been in the seat since October 2024, and there have been rounds of layoffs, leadership shuffles, and restructurings essentially ever since. But the pace and scale of the current effort signals that Nike is serious about becoming a leaner operation, even if it means short-term pain for a lot of employees.

What makes this week’s cuts particularly interesting is the talent they’re sending into the market. Lululemon made waves by naming Heidi O’Neill -- a 28-year Nike veteran -- as its next CEO, effective September 8. O’Neill left Nike last May when Hill reorganized the brand around key sports and split apart her role as president of consumer, product and brand. At Nike, she had been instrumental in growing the company from $9 billion to roughly $45 billion in revenue, overseeing the product pipeline, brand voice, and consumer relationships at a truly global scale. She also brings board experience from companies like Spotify and Hyatt, and earlier career experience at Dockers.

Lululemon is handing her a genuinely difficult assignment. The athleisure brand that popularized the category has been struggling to recapture its former momentum in the U.S. market. The prior CEO Calvin McDonald -- who stepped down in January -- had acknowledged that the product had become too predictable, a critique echoed loudly by founder Chip Wilson and outside investors. Wells Fargo analysts noted late last year that Lululemon had been unable to post positive comps in its U.S. market for over 12 months, with increasing competition from brands like Alo Yoga and Vuori making it harder to stand out.

O’Neill arrives with broad credibility in the activewear space, and analysts at GlobalData called her an obvious choice. The cautionary note is that her background is more traditional than some activist investors would like -- Elliott Investment Management, which took a $1 billion-plus stake in Lululemon in December, had been pushing for Ralph Lauren veteran Jane Nielsen to get the job. Still, O’Neill has said she plans to accelerate product breakthroughs, deepen the brand’s cultural relevance, and pursue international growth -- which sounds very much like someone who has a plan, not just a résumé.

The Big Picture: 40,000 Stores Could Close in Five Years

If you wanted a backdrop for all this corporate turmoil, UBS delivered it this week with a stark macro forecast. In a research note, analysts led by Michael Lasser projected that retailers could close more than 40,000 stores over the next five years, driven primarily by the relentless growth of e-commerce and, increasingly, AI-assisted shopping. Department stores and specialty retailers are most at risk, while off-price chains are expected to keep expanding. From Q3 2024 to Q3 2025, there were already 5,000 fewer stores in the U.S. -- a meaningful shift from recent years when new openings were outpacing closures.

The number of stores per capita has already been declining for years. As of Q3 2025, there were fewer than three stores for every 1,000 people in the U.S., down about 12% from 2003. Online sales now account for more than 20% of total U.S. retail sales, up from just over 10% in 2019, and UBS expects that figure to reach 27% by 2030. The analysts’ view is that this “combination of e-commerce and AI-enabled shopping has been steadily siphoning sales away from physical stores, reducing the revenue needed to sustain large store fleets.”

Current U.S. policy is amplifying the pressure. Tariffs alone could drive significantly more closures if they remain in place through 2030. UBS estimates that retailers will collectively absorb around $100 billion in higher costs, which will likely push some of those expenses onto consumers -- a particularly painful dynamic given that a third of U.S. households earn less than $50,000 a year. The result could be an annual retail sales decline of roughly 0.5%, with the smallest and most marginal retailers bearing the brunt of it. Large chains like Walmart, Costco, and Target are expected to come out ahead.

That said, the situation isn’t hopeless for physical retail. Research consistently shows that consumers still prefer stores when they want to touch products, enjoy the shopping experience, or discover something new. The retailers most likely to survive and thrive are those that give shoppers a real reason to make the trip.

Bed Bath & Beyond Does a California U-Turn

Here’s a story that’s equal parts business news and personal drama. Marcus Lemonis, CEO of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., had been pretty unambiguous about his feelings toward California. In an August press release, he stated flatly that “we will not open or operate retail stores in California,” calling the state overregulated and a risky environment for business. He continued to criticize Governor Gavin Newsom on social media right up through earlier this month.

So it raised more than a few eyebrows this week when the company announced that its new combined Container Store and Bed Bath & Beyond store format will include 12 locations in California, as part of a chainwide reset across 98 total locations in 34 states. The reset is called the “Store Changing” event and involves liquidating about 30% of select categories at The Container Store to make room for Bed Bath & Beyond merchandise. Early-bird shoppers can get an additional 5% discount on weekends by showing up when stores open an hour early.

The broader strategy here is Bed Bath & Beyond’s ambition to become a home services ecosystem. The Container Store acquisition, completed for about $150 million in stock and convertible notes, brings The Container Store’s organizing solutions and in-home services together with Bed Bath & Beyond’s expanded home assortment. The brand portfolio also includes Overstock.com, BuyBuy Baby, and Kirkland’s for retail, with Elfa and Closet Works focused on home services. And about a week after that deal was announced, Bed Bath & Beyond signed a letter of intent to also acquire Cabinets To Go and Lumber Liquidators parent F9 Brands Inc. Whatever you think of Lemonis’ public statements about California, the company clearly isn’t letting them get in the way of a store footprint that makes geographic sense.

Online Grocery Is the Real Growth Engine

If you want to understand where retail dollars are actually going, a new report from FMI -- The Food Industry Association and NielsenIQ lays it out clearly. Online grocery sales are projected to reach $452 billion by 2028, growing at an annual rate of about 11.6%. In 2025, online grocery sales jumped nearly 19%, and they accounted for roughly 72% of total grocery dollar growth for the year. To put that another way: without e-commerce, most grocery categories would be posting flat or declining numbers.

The report also makes clear that the divide between online and in-store is becoming less meaningful. Nearly 94% of grocery shoppers in 2025 bought both online and in-store, blending digital discovery, in-store browsing and delivery in ways that suit their schedules. The challenge for grocers is that the growth isn’t evenly distributed: Amazon and mass merchandisers together account for around 61% of online grocery sales, and their share has been growing while conventional grocers’ share has declined.

Sam’s Club is squarely in the fight for those dollars. The Walmart subsidiary launched a new one-hour Express delivery tier this week, expanding beyond its existing three-hour service. After an initial test in select markets, the option rolled out across more than 600 club locations on April 2, and the company has already fulfilled nearly 65,000 Express deliveries. The average order has been completed in 55 minutes, and the 10 fastest deliveries were all done in under 12 minutes. Pricing is $10 for Plus members and $22 for regular Club members, with no minimum purchase and in-store pricing on products.

What stands out is what people are actually ordering: bottled water, produce, rotisserie chicken, paper goods. Not special occasion items or forgotten ingredients -- everyday essentials. That suggests this isn’t a gimmick or an edge case. Shoppers are genuinely starting to treat one-hour delivery as a normal part of how they stock their homes. Analysts at GlobalData noted that the real competitive risk is not just Amazon, but the compounding effect of customers defecting for one type of mission and then gradually shifting more of their spending elsewhere.

AI Is Reshaping How People Shop

Two stories this week illustrated just how fast AI is becoming embedded in the actual mechanics of retail, and they came from very different directions.

Ulta Beauty and Google announced a partnership that goes well beyond a simple product feed integration. Over the next month, Ulta is enabling agentic commerce in Google’s AI Mode in search and the Gemini app, meaning shoppers will be able to get product recommendations, compare items and complete purchases without ever leaving Google’s conversational interface. The experience is powered by Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol, an open standard for agentic commerce developed with Shopify. Separately, Ulta is also launching Ulta AI on its own website and app -- a shopping assistant built on Gemini Enterprise for Customer Experience, drawing on data from the brand’s 46 million loyalty members to offer personalized guidance as shoppers browse.

What makes this noteworthy is the architecture. Ulta isn’t just placing products in a chat window. It’s connecting its product catalog, loyalty data, and checkout infrastructure to a system designed to meet a shopper at the exact moment they express intent -- whether that’s inside Google Search or inside the Ulta app. Other major retailers including Walmart, Target, and Etsy have made similar moves this year, but Ulta’s implementation is notable for how comprehensively it spans both third-party AI platforms and its own digital properties.

At the other end of the spectrum, Aerie launched something that’s explicitly a pushback against artificial intelligence. The American Eagle brand introduced its Realmakers Community this week, a new creator program that offers participants affiliate commissions, product seeding, campaign opportunities and access to brand-led events. The program is open to anyone with at least 1,500 followers on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, or Pinterest. The twist is that participants are required to commit to not retouching their photos and not using AI to generate bodies or people in their content. This extends the “#AerieReal” pledge the brand made back in 2014 and its more recent campaign with Pamela Anderson emphasizing 100% unaltered imagery.

It’s a smart positioning play. As AI-generated content floods social platforms, there’s a meaningful audience that actively wants to see something that looks and feels human. And Aerie has the receipts to back up the strategy: the brand posted a 9% year-over-year increase in comparable sales in 2025, including a 23% comp increase in Q4. The authenticity angle isn’t just values-driven marketing -- it’s been a genuine business driver.

Finally, in the food and beverage world, Nestlé confirmed this week that it’s selling Blue Bottle Coffee to Centurium Capital, a Beijing-based private equity firm that is also the majority shareholder of Luckin Coffee -- China’s largest coffee chain, which operates more than 31,000 locations worldwide. The deal covers Blue Bottle’s cafes and its consumer goods business, though Nestlé will retain the rights to Blue Bottle’s single-serve Nespresso pods. Financial terms weren’t officially disclosed, but previous reports pegged the sale at around $400 million -- a significant markdown from the roughly $700 million valuation when Nestlé originally acquired a majority stake in Blue Bottle back in 2017.

Nestlé has been moving quickly to prune its portfolio under new CEO Philipp Navratil, who is focused on streamlining the company around core brands. Blue Bottle, with its 78 U.S. locations and a presence in a handful of other markets, is a relatively asset-heavy specialty retail business -- not a natural fit for where Nestlé is trying to go. For Centurium, the acquisition is a meaningful step into the North American market, coming less than a year after Luckin Coffee quietly opened its first U.S. locations. Blue Bottle is expected to turn profitable in 2026, which gives Centurium something to work with as it figures out what its American ambitions look like.

Taken together, this week’s news tells a story about an industry under pressure from multiple directions at once -- technological change, policy uncertainty, shifting consumer habits, and the ongoing challenge of figuring out which brands and formats actually deserve to survive. The companies threading that needle best seem to be the ones that know exactly what they stand for.

That’s all for today folks.

The Invisible War: What It Really Takes to Deploy, Support, and Maintain Technology in the Field

There’s a version of retail technology deployments that lives in slide decks. It’s clean. It has swim lanes. The equipment ships on time, the network is ready, the staff is trained, and the first transaction goes through without a hitch.

Then there’s the real version.

I’ve spent years in the weeds of field POS deployment.....across retail, hospitality, fuel and convenience, and quick service restaurants. And if there’s one thing I can tell you with absolute certainty, it’s this: the hardest part of POS is never the technology itself. It’s everything around it.

The Design and Discovery Problem Nobody Talks About

Every POS project starts with a discovery phase. And almost every discovery phase is underfunded, rushed, or both.

Here’s the tension: the people who hold the budget want to get to the fun part...picking hardware, demoing software, negotiating contracts. Discovery feels like overhead. It feels like paying someone to ask questions you think you already know the answers to.

But here’s what gets missed when discovery is shortchanged:

The site survey gap. How many sites actually have adequate power drops near the counter? How many have the right network infrastructure, or any network infrastructure? How many have counter configurations that physically fit the proposed hardware footprint? You find out the hard way, usually on install day, usually when a technician is standing in a store calling the project manager asking what to do.

The exception inventory gap. No two locations are the same, even within the same brand. Franchisee buildouts, remodels done at different times, ADA accommodations, back-office configurations — the list of variables is endless. When discovery doesn’t surface exceptions early, they become field escalations later. And field escalations are expensive.

The stakeholder alignment gap. Operations wants one thing. IT wants another. Finance has constraints neither of them know about. The vendor is promising features that haven’t shipped yet. And the store manager who will actually use the system daily? Often not in the room at all during design. The result is a system designed by committee that doesn’t quite work for anyone.

Coordination: Where Good Plans Go to Die

Assume you got through discovery in reasonable shape. You have a design. You have hardware selected. You have a deployment plan. Now comes coordination — and this is where even well-designed projects routinely fall apart.

The Multi-Party Orchestration Problem

A typical POS deployment touches:

• The technology vendor (or multiple vendors — hardware, software, payments)

• Your internal IT team

• Your field operations or store ops team

• A third-party field services organization doing the physical installs

• The network provider

• The payments processor

• Loss prevention or compliance, depending on your vertical

• The store itself — managers, staff, sometimes landlords for network runs

Each of these parties has different priorities, different systems of record, different definitions of “ready,” and different escalation paths. Getting them to move in concert, at scale, across hundreds or thousands of locations, is genuinely one of the hardest logistical challenges in enterprise technology.

And when one leg of this stool wobbles, say, the network carrier misses a circuit activation date, it creates a cascade. The technician is dispatched to a site that isn’t ready. You pay for a truck roll that produces nothing. You reschedule. You try to hold the hardware at a staging facility. The store manager who cleared their calendar for training is frustrated. You do this 47 times across a rollout and suddenly your project is three months behind and 20% over budget.

The “Last Mile” Communication Failure

Information that seems obvious to the project team often never makes it to the field. The technician showing up to a location may not know:

• That the counter is being modified the same week

• That the store is running a major promotion and can’t be taken offline that day

• That there’s a new store manager who has no context on the project

• That the parking lot is under construction and equipment delivery is complicated

Field services teams work from work orders. Work orders are only as good as the information fed into them. When the communication chain has gaps, and it always does, the technician absorbs the shock at the location level. They improvise. Sometimes that works. Sometimes it creates a mess that takes weeks to clean up.

Delivery: When Hardware Meets Reality

Hardware procurement and logistics for rollouts is its own discipline, and it’s underestimated almost universally.

Supply Chain Fragility

The past several years have been a master class in how dependent POS hardware is on global supply chains. Lead times that used to be weeks stretched to months. Components that were specified in a solution design became unavailable mid-rollout, requiring emergency substitutions that then required firmware updates, peripheral requalification, and documentation changes.

Even in stable markets, procurement for a large-scale rollout requires careful staging. You’re not ordering everything at once. You’re sequencing deliveries to match installation schedules, managing warehouse space, coordinating “kitting” (bundling all the components for a given site into a single shipment), and tracking serial numbers at the unit level for asset management purposes.

Do this well and it’s invisible. Do it poorly and you have technicians showing up to sites with incomplete kits, or the wrong peripheral model, or equipment that shipped to the wrong address.

The Receiving Problem

At the other end of the supply chain is the location itself. Large format retail has loading docks and receiving teams. A 1,200 square foot franchise location does not. When a pallet of equipment shows up at a small store, who receives it? Where does it go? Is it secure? Is the store manager even expecting it?

These questions seem trivial until you’re on the phone with a frantic store manager who says the shipment didn’t arrive, and you check tracking and it shows delivered three days ago, and it turns out an overnight crew took the boxes to the back without telling anyone.

Field Support: The Long Game

Deployment is a sprint. Support is a marathon.

Once equipment is live, the real work begins. POS systems fail. Not often, but enough. And when a POS terminal goes down during a lunch rush, the urgency is immediate and the tolerance for downtime is zero.

The Triage Problem

When something goes wrong, who figures out what it is? Is it hardware? Software? Network? Payment processing? Each layer has a different owner, a different support process, and a different SLA. The store manager doesn’t know and doesn’t care, they know the register isn’t working and there’s a line.

Effective field support requires a triage layer that can quickly identify the fault domain and route to the right resolver. This sounds simple. Building it, maintaining it, and getting it to work consistently across a complex multi-vendor environment is not simple.

The Parts and Logistics Layer

When hardware fails, replacement parts need to be somewhere accessible. Depot repair programs, spare-in-place equipment, advance exchange, these are real operational programs that need to be designed, funded, and continuously managed. Who stocks the spares? Where? How quickly can a technician be dispatched? What happens when the same piece of hardware fails three times in six months?

The Knowledge Decay Problem

POS systems get updated. Peripherals get swapped out. New features roll out. The technician who was certified on version 2.0 of the system is now supporting version 3.4, and the differences matter. Keeping field technician knowledge current across a large, distributed workforce is an ongoing investment that many organizations underestimate until they’re paying for it in extended resolution times and repeat truck rolls.

What Good Actually Looks Like

After all of this, it’s worth saying: these problems are solvable. Organizations do this well. Here’s what separates the ones that do:

Investing in discovery like it’s a deliverable, not overhead. Real site surveys. Exception documentation. Stakeholder alignment sessions that include operators, not just IT.

Treating coordination as a discipline, not an assumption. Dedicated deployment program management. Communication protocols that reach the field. Single-pane-of-glass visibility into where every site stands in the readiness checklist.

Building supply chain and logistics into the program from day one. Not bolting it on after hardware is selected. Kitting specifications, staging warehouse planning, and delivery sequencing designed alongside the technical architecture.

Designing support before you go live, not after. Triage frameworks. SLAs with teeth. Spare parts programs. Training plans. All of this should be ready before the first location cuts over.

Closing the feedback loop. The field knows things the project team doesn’t. Build mechanisms to capture and act on that intelligence...during the rollout and after.

And most importantly....a great technology partner.

The Bottom Line

Technology deployment is a contact sport. It happens in the real world, in real stores, with real people who have other priorities and real equipment that doesn’t always behave the way it did in the lab.

The technology is the easy part. The hard part is the orchestration....getting the right equipment to the right place at the right time, with the right support around it, delivered by people who know what they’re doing, backed by a program that can absorb the inevitable surprises.

If you’re planning a refresh or rollout initiative and you’re spending more time on the hardware selection than the deployment program design, I’d encourage you to rebalance that investment. The system you pick matters less than how you bring it to life.

Hey Friends,

Here’s what we are talking about today: Apple is preparing for a leadership transition that signals a shift from operational excellence to product-led AI innovation under John Ternus, while Allbirds attempts one of the most unusual pivots in recent retail memory by moving from footwear into AI infrastructure. At the same time, retailers are leaning deeper into lifecycle ownership and AI-driven engagement, from Ulta’s move into agentic commerce to Amazon expanding into healthcare, pricing strategy controversy, and logistics-heavy GLP-1 care. Layered on top of that are continued global expansion plays from brands like Lululemon, structural separation moves like Primark’s planned spin-off, and a growing theme that cuts across everything: retail and tech are no longer just adopting AI, they are being reshaped by it in real time.

Let’s get into it…..

Apple is preparing for a new life under John Ternus…….Apple is entering a major leadership transition, with Tim Cook stepping down as CEO and hardware chief John Ternus set to take over. Cook’s tenure was defined by operational excellence and massive value creation, scaling Apple into one of the most valuable companies in history. Ternus inherits a different challenge: accelerating Apple’s position in the AI era. Unlike competitors that have made splashy AI product announcements, Apple is expected to take a more integrated approach, embedding AI into its existing hardware and software ecosystem. This transition could mark a shift from supply chain and services optimization toward deeper product-led innovation centered on AI.

John Ternus is a longtime Apple executive and engineer who is set to become CEO of Apple in September 2026, succeeding Tim Cook. He joined Apple in 2001 and has spent over two decades rising through the company’s hardware organization.

Ternus is fundamentally a product and hardware leader, not a finance or operations executive. As Apple’s head of hardware engineering, he has overseen development across nearly every major product line, including iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch and AirPods. He also played a key role in Apple’s silicon transition and the resurgence of the Mac.

Inside Apple, he is known as a low-profile, well-liked operator who deeply understands the company’s product culture. He is considered a “lifer” at Apple, someone who grew up within the organization and represents continuity rather than disruption.

I am not sure what to make of the Allbirds story. Allbirds is undergoing one of the most dramatic pivots in recent retail history. After agreeing to sell its core footwear business for roughly $39 million, the company is repositioning itself as an AI infrastructure player under the name “NewBird AI.” The strategy centers on building GPU-as-a-service and AI-native cloud solutions, targeting the rapidly growing demand for compute power. Investors reacted aggressively, sending the stock sharply higher despite minimal detail on execution.

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“The apps that grew weren’t just optimizing for checkout. They were getting people to spend time — and building a relationship where customers actually wanted to hear from them.”

Hey Friends,

Sometimes, if you want a clear view of where retail is heading, all you have to do is look in the palm of your hand.

Mobile has become the front door for modern retail, where discovery happens, loyalty is built, and transactions are completed in seconds. And while thousands of retail apps exist, a small group has separated itself by becoming daily habits for consumers, not just occasional tools.

Here’s a look at the 10 best retail mobile apps right now, ranked by real-world impact, innovation, and how well they connect digital with physical retail.

#1A Amazon

Retail · E-Commerce

The gold standard for mobile commerce

Prime Users: Worldwide, Amazon Prime has 260 million subscribers, with 185 million in the U.S. alone.

✦ Pros

• Unmatched product selection across virtually every category

• Same-day and next-day delivery via Prime in most U.S. markets

• Seamless integration with Alexa, Subscribe & Save, and Amazon Pay

• Best-in-class search, reviews, and comparison tools

• Consistently strong app store ratings (4.7 iOS / 4.3 Android)

✦ Cons

• Counterfeit and low-quality third-party listings remain a persistent issue

• App interface can feel cluttered with sponsored products

• Prime membership required for best shipping benefits ($139/yr)

• Returns process can be cumbersome for third-party items

📊 Despite Temu’s explosive growth, Amazon remains the undisputed usage leader — a lead that reflects deep customer loyalty and logistics infrastructure no competitor has yet matched.

#1B Chick-Fil-A

Loyalty is the core of everything

At the center is Chick-fil-A One, which is one of the simplest but most effective rewards programs in QSR.

✦ Pros

• Strong, easy-to-use loyalty program (earn and redeem quickly)

• Seamless mobile ordering with multiple pickup options (drive-thru, curbside, carry-out)

• Check-in feature improves timing and reduces wait times

• Saves favorite orders and preferences for quick reordering

• High user satisfaction and consistent experience across locations

• Improves order accuracy vs in-person ordering

• Helps reduce congestion at busy stores

• Frequent app-exclusive rewards and promotions

✦Cons

• Occasional app glitches or orders not going through

• Limited customization compared to some competitors

• Higher perceived pricing for delivery vs pickup

• No strong stored-value wallet or broader ecosystem features

• Some order accuracy issues still occur at the store level

• Customer support/resolution can be slow when issues happen

#2 Temu

Retail · Discount Marketplace

The Rising Star

✦ Pros

• #1 most-downloaded shopping app globally for the third consecutive year

• Ultra-low prices via direct-from-manufacturer sourcing model

• Highly addictive gamified shopping experience drives repeat engagement

• 530M+ monthly active users worldwide; 133M in the U.S. alone

• Explosive growth across Europe, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific

✦ Cons

• Product quality is inconsistent — what you see isn’t always what you get

• Significant data privacy concerns given Chinese ownership (PDD Holdings)

• U.S. tariff changes (de minimis exemption removal) damaged growth momentum

• Shipping times from China can be lengthy for non-warehoused items

• Intellectual property and counterfeit controversies

📊 Temu hit 1 billion cumulative downloads in Q2 2025 — a stunning achievement for a brand launched only in 2022. U.S. tariff headwinds dented growth in mid-2025, but European expansion is filling the gap.

#3 Walmart

Retail · Big-Box & Grocery

✦ Pros

• Best-in-class grocery pickup and same-day delivery integration

• Exceptional 4.7-star Play Store rating from 3.5M+ reviews

• Walmart+ membership rivals Amazon Prime in value

• Seamless in-store and digital experience with Scan & Go

• Strong price-match tools and Savings Catcher features

✦ Cons

• Third-party marketplace quality control lags Amazon significantly

• App performance can lag on older devices

• Walmart+ free trial conversion tactics feel pushy to some users

• Online grocery selection varies significantly by region

📊 Whatnot became the fastest-growing shopping app in the U.S. in 2025 but still trails Walmart, which serves approximately 255 million customer visits per week across all channels.

#4 Starbucks

QSR · Coffee & Beverages

50M+Active Loyalty Members - holds roughly $1.78 billion to $1.85 billion in unspent preloaded cash

✦ Pros

• The gold standard for QSR loyalty — Starbucks Rewards is best-in-class

• Mobile Order & Pay drives ~21% of all U.S. transactions

• Deeply personalized offers, stars, and gamified reward challenges

• Seamless Apple Pay / Google Pay and in-app payment integration

• Highly intuitive UI with easy menu customization

✦ Cons

• Mobile order congestion at peak hours frustrates in-store customers

• Recent loyalty program changes (point devaluations) angered power users

• Menu complexity can make app navigation slow for new users

• App exclusivity on some promotions feels unfair to non-app users

📊 Starbucks pioneered the QSR app playbook — at its peak, it processed more U.S. mobile payments than Apple Pay. Competitors have been trying to catch up ever since.

#5 McDonald’s

QSR · Fast Food

#1 Most Downloaded Food App

✦ Pros

• Ranked #1 most-downloaded food & drink app globally in 2025

• Exclusive app-only deals (Free Fries Fridays, BOGO offers) drive strong downloads

• MyMcDonald’s Rewards loyalty program now spans 20,000+ locations

• Mobile order and pay active at virtually all U.S. restaurants

• Monopoly and other in-app games create viral engagement

✦ Cons

• Daily active user engagement lags behind Starbucks despite high install rate

• App performance and stability complaints are common in reviews

• Promotions are the primary driver of downloads — retention without deals is weak

• Loyalty points expire and redemption rules are confusing to some users

📊 McDonald’s app peaked midday (lunch), revealing untapped breakfast opportunity. The chain has leaned heavily on deal-driven downloads — the challenge now is building habitual daily use.

#6 Target

Top 10%U.S. App Store Rank

✦ Pros

• Seamless Drive Up (curbside) feature is a customer favorite

• Target Circle loyalty program offers personalized 1% earnings on every purchase

• Exceptional 4.8 iOS / 4.7 Android ratings

• In-store barcode scanning and aisle navigation built into the app

• Same-day delivery via Shipt integrated directly

✦ Cons

• Smaller product catalog than Amazon or Walmart for non-general merchandise

• Circle program changes in 2024 reduced appeal for budget shoppers

• AI referral traffic still represents <1% of total visits — not fully leveraged

• Limited international reach constrains global relevance

📊 Target ranked in the 91st percentile for overall app downloads in 2025, with AI-driven referral traffic to its site growing over 1,600% — a signal of how generative AI is beginning to reshape retail discovery.

#7 Chipotle

QSR · Fast Casual

✦ Pros

• Highly rated app with exceptionally smooth digital ordering experience

• Chipotle Rewards is one of the most generous QSR loyalty programs

• Exclusive “Extras” menu items available only through the app

• Gamified challenges (Guac Mode, Freepotle) drive recurring engagement

• Order customization that perfectly mirrors the in-store line experience

✦ Cons

• Digital order pickup lanes at restaurants can create bottlenecks

• Portion sizes reportedly smaller for digital vs. in-person orders

• App can be slow during peak lunch and dinner hours

• Limited-time offerings sell out quickly; app lacks real-time inventory signals

📊 Chipotle is widely considered the fast-casual app benchmark. Its digital sales consistently exceed 35% of total revenue — proof that a great app experience translates directly to the bottom line.

#8 SHEIN

✦ Pros

• Extraordinary fashion breadth with thousands of new SKUs added daily

• 7-day production cycles — trend-to-market faster than any competitor

• Strong organic retention; open rate stayed above 80% even as ad spend fell

• ~$58.5B in estimated 2025 revenue; dominant with Gen Z and millennial women

• App-exclusive flash sales, daily check-in rewards, and loyalty coins

✦ Cons

• Persistent criticism over labor practices and environmental impact

• Frequent intellectual property/design theft allegations from independent designers

• Data privacy concerns given Chinese corporate ownership

• Product quality is highly variable; sizing is inconsistent

• Shipping times from overseas can be 2–4 weeks for many items

📊 SHEIN ranked #2 globally in shopping app downloads in 2025 behind Temu. Its production speed and pricing model have forced legacy fast-fashion brands like H&M and Zara to dramatically accelerate their own digital strategies.

#9 Domino’s Pizza

Remember the pizza tracker? They’ve come a long way.

✦ Pros

• More than half of all U.S. Domino’s sales now flow through digital channels

• Supports ordering across 15+ platforms including smartwatch and smart TV

• Piece of the Pie Rewards loyalty program is one of the industry’s oldest and most trusted

• Live order tracker is a beloved feature that sets expectations perfectly

• Consistently lauded as a tech-forward QSR innovation leader

✦ Cons

• Recent loyalty program changes frustrated long-term customers

• UI feels dated compared to more modern QSR app experiences

• Delivery radius limitations mean app utility varies widely by location

• Coupon stacking restrictions have become more aggressive

📊 Domino’s bet on tech before it was fashionable — and won. The company famously calls itself “a tech company that sells pizza.” With 50%+ digital sales, that strategy has been validated completely.

#10 Instacart

✦ Pros

• Access to 1,500+ retail partners in a single app — true grocery aggregation

• Same-day delivery and curbside pickup across most U.S. markets

• Outstanding 4.8 iOS / 4.4 Android ratings reflect genuine customer satisfaction

• Price comparison across stores in a single order

• Instacart+ membership offers free delivery and exclusive savings

✦ Cons

• Fees (delivery, service, tip) can add 20–40% above in-store prices

• Item substitution quality varies widely by shopper

• Intense competition from Walmart+, Amazon Fresh, and DoorDash Grocery

• Shopper availability can drop in rural and suburban markets

📊 Instacart’s aggregation model — shop any store from one app — remains its most powerful differentiator. The key question for 2026: can it maintain market position as Walmart and Amazon integrate grocery delivery more deeply into their own ecosystems?

Honorable Mentions

Shop

Why it’s rising fast:

• Aggregates thousands of Shopify brands

• Built-in Shop Pay (fastest checkout in retail)

• Strong order tracking + discovery feed

• Becoming a “meta-layer” for DTC commerce

Quietly becoming the operating system for DTC shopping

Sephora App

Why it excels:

• Loyalty + gamification done right

• AI try-on + beauty tech integration

• Strong omnichannel tie-ins (store + app)

One of the best examples of experiential retail in mobile.

Zara App: Built for Speed + Fashion Discovery

Zara’s app is essentially an extension of its fast-fashion engine.

What it does well

• Always-on newness: The app constantly surfaces new drops, collections, and campaigns, mirroring Zara’s rapid product cycles

• Store Mode integration: When you’re in-store, the app shifts into a companion tool with QR codes, e-receipts, and purchase tracking

• Frictionless omnichannel:

  • Buy online, pick up in store

  • Return anywhere (online or in-store purchases)

• Highly visual experience: Editorial-style layouts that feel closer to Instagram than traditional ecommerce

What it’s really optimized for

👉 Inspiration → impulse → fast checkout

UNIQLO App: Built for Utility + Product Confidence

The Uniqlo app takes almost the opposite approach. It’s less about discovery and more about helping you make the right purchase.

What it does well

• Scan + Shop: Scan an item in-store to instantly find sizes, colors, and nearby availability

• Fit + sizing tools: Features like MySize Assist help recommend sizing based on your body

• Inventory transparency: Real-time stock checks across stores and online

• App-exclusive pricing + offers

• Strong utility features:

  • Back-in-stock alerts

  • Reviews with detailed fit info

  • E-receipts and purchase history

What it’s really optimized for

👉 Confidence → accuracy → repeat purchase

What These Rankings Tell Us About the Future of Mobile Commerce

The retail and QSR app landscape in 2025–2026 reflects a market that has matured past raw download growth and into an era defined by engagement, loyalty, and monetization. Global app downloads grew less than 1% year-over-year in 2025, yet time spent and in-app spending rose meaningfully, a clear signal that the apps already on consumers’ phones are working harder than ever.

Two dominant storylines emerge from the data. First, the Chinese discount platform insurgency: Temu and SHEIN collectively accumulated over a billion downloads in 2025, fueled by aggressive pricing, gamified experiences, and marketing spend that dwarfs what most traditional retailers allocate to mobile. The U.S. tariff changes of mid-2025 created a speed bump, but both platforms adapted quickly, redirecting growth toward Europe and Latin America while U.S. user bases stabilized.

Second, the QSR loyalty arms race is intensifying. Starbucks, McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Domino’s have all made clear that their apps are not ancillary tools, they’re the primary relationship with the customer. Digital ordering now drives a third to a half of total sales for top QSR brands, and the loyalty data these apps generate is being used to personalize offers at a level that print coupons could never achieve.

For retailers and restaurateurs watching these trends: the gap between app leaders and laggards is widening rapidly. Consumers who download and use your app spend 2.8 to 5 times more than website-only shoppers. The brands in this ranking didn’t get here by accident — they invested in design, loyalty architecture, and relentless iteration. In 2026, a mediocre app is worse than no app at all.

The quick-service restaurant industry has always competed on speed and consistency. But the arms race now underway isn’t about a faster fryer or a better sauce, it’s about artificial intelligence, unified data platforms, computer vision, and hyper-personalized loyalty ecosystems. The digitization of QSR is no longer a pilot program. It’s the operating model.

From Experimentation to Expectation

In 2026, AI has moved from experimentation to expectation. Brand leaders must now treat it as a pervasive strategic engine, not a bolt-on project or a marketing soundbite. The pressure is real: while 2025 was a year of adaptation to rising operating costs, inflation, labor shortages, and customer pressure, 2026 is being defined by optimization, AI, and hyper-automation.

An industry once defined by speed and consistency is now being reshaped by data, automation, and intelligent personalization. The digital transformation touches everything…..from the moment a customer pulls into a drive-thru lane to the inventory decisions being made in the back office before the doors open.

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It’s a packed week across retail, with a clear theme emerging: control. From the Masters turning scarcity into a $100M retail engine, to Amazon pushing rising costs back onto sellers, to Meta tightening its grip on where and how transactions happen, the balance of power continues to shift. At the same time, retailers are playing offense, leaning into disciplined growth, new partnerships, and resale models to capture demand in a more complex, margin-constrained environment.

It’s Masters Week at Augusta, one of my absolute favorite times of year. And for retail it highlights the perfect intersection of retail x sport, and demand generation that should be studied for generations.

Every April, The Masters Tournament turns a single on-site pro shop into a retail machine that rivals some of the biggest brands on the planet. While Augusta National Golf Club doesn’t disclose official numbers, most estimates peg merchandise revenue at at least $70 million during tournament week, with some industry observers putting the figure closer to $100M–$150M+ when factoring in extended access and premium sales.

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For decades, the loyalty program was retail’s great equalizer: a simple transaction dressed up in the language of belonging. Spend enough, earn a point. Earn enough points, get a discount. The math was blunt, the engagement thin, and the promise mostly hollow. Retailers knew it. Shoppers knew it. Yet the model persisted, a holdover from an era when data was scarce and personalization was a word reserved for monogrammed bathrobes.

That era is ending. Artificial intelligence, specifically the convergence of machine learning, real-time behavioral analytics, and generative AI, is forcing a wholesale rethinking of what a loyalty program can be. The shift is not incremental. It is structural. And the retailers who grasp this early will find themselves with something the old points-card model could never deliver: genuine, durable customer relationships.

Let’s get into it……..

From Transactions to Relationships

The foundational problem with traditional loyalty programs is that they are, at their core, discount mechanisms with extra steps. A customer earns points not because they feel valued, but because a small financial incentive nudges them back. The moment a competitor offers a better discount, the “loyalty” evaporates. Retailers have long known the difference between a loyal customer and a discount-dependent one, but lacked the tools to close the gap.

AI changes this by enabling programs to move from reactive to predictive. Rather than rewarding past behavior with a generic discount, AI-powered platforms analyze purchase history, browsing patterns, seasonal behavior, social signals, and even real-time inventory data to anticipate what a customer will want…..and when…..before the customer has articulated it themselves.

“The best loyalty program is one the customer never has to think about. It just seems to know.”

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Hey Friends,

A lot is shifting right now, but the common thread across this week’s stories is pressure and adaptation. From rising input costs and supply chain strain to new legal risks in tech and evolving retail strategies, companies are being forced to get sharper, leaner, and more intentional about how they operate. Whether it’s simplifying assortments, rethinking distribution, or meeting customers in entirely new channels, the playbook isn’t about growth at all costs anymore, it’s about navigating complexity while protecting margins.

Retailers are bracing for another wave of cost pressure as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz send oil and petrochemical prices sharply higher. The surge is already flowing through to key retail inputs like plastics, packaging, and transportation, raising costs across categories from apparel and electronics to packaged goods. For retailers, this creates a familiar squeeze, higher product costs on one side and fragile consumer demand on the other.

The impact is especially acute in categories heavily tied to petrochemicals, including synthetic apparel, beauty packaging, and private label goods, where margin structures are already tight. At the same time, rising fuel costs are increasing freight and last-mile delivery expenses, compounding pressure across already complex supply chains. Many retailers and brands are now evaluating selective price increases, vendor renegotiations, and inventory strategies to protect profitability.

A California jury delivered a rare and potentially precedent-setting verdict against Meta and Google, finding the companies partly responsible for a young woman’s depression and anxiety tied to compulsive social media use that began in childhood. The jury awarded $6 million in damages, with Meta responsible for 70%, concluding that platforms like Instagram and YouTube were deliberately designed to be addictive and exploit the developing brains of young users. Crucially, the case sidestepped traditional legal protections by focusing not on user-generated content, but on product design features like infinite scroll, autoplay, and notifications. The decision marks the first time a jury has treated social media platforms as defective products, opening the door for thousands of similar lawsuits currently working through the courts.

The ruling comes alongside a separate $375 million verdict against Meta in New Mexico over child safety failures, reinforcing mounting legal pressure on social platforms. While the financial penalties are negligible relative to the companies’ size, the broader implication is significant: this case mirrors early litigation against Big Tobacco and signals a shift toward holding tech companies accountable for how their products are engineered, especially for younger users.

This case reframes social media risk from a content problem to a product design issue, a shift that could fundamentally change regulation, platform design, and liability across the tech industry.

Read more

It’s Thursday which means it’s time for our weekly bonus edition. For our free subscribers, you’re getting a little more of a taste this week of our premium content. Hope you enjoy and thanks again for reading……..

The future of shopping is starting to take shape inside AI. Walmart has launched a new in-platform experience within ChatGPT, powered by its AI agent Sparky, allowing customers to move from discovery to purchase within Walmart’s own ecosystem. The move comes as OpenAI pivots away from its earlier Instant Checkout feature, choosing instead to focus on product discovery while retailers control the transaction. A growing list of brands like Target and Sephora are plugging into this model, reinforcing a big shift. Shopping no longer starts on retailer websites. It starts wherever the customer is asking questions.

Amazon just made a quiet but telling move deeper into consumer robotics with its acquisition of Fauna Robotics, a New York–based startup focused on humanoid robots designed for human environments.

The centerpiece of the deal is Fauna’s robot “Sprout,” a small, expressive humanoid built not for warehouses, but for homes, hospitality, retail and education. Unlike Amazon’s existing robotics fleet, which is heavily concentrated in fulfillment centers, Sprout is designed for interaction. It can walk, gesture, pick up light objects and engage with people in a more social, almost companion-like way.

That distinction matters. Amazon already operates more than a million robots behind the scenes in logistics, but this acquisition signals a push beyond operational efficiency and into customer-facing robotics. Fauna’s platform was also built as a developer system, meaning it can be programmed and adapted for different environments, from retail stores to entertainment venues

We’ve got more leadership changes…….. Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos will step down in 2027, with JJ Fleeman Jr., current CEO of Ahold Delhaize USA, set to take over. The choice signals a continued push into grocery and consumables, areas that are becoming increasingly important for discount retailers looking to drive repeat traffic. Vasos helped stabilize the company after returning from retirement, and the transition suggests Dollar General is now positioning for its next phase of growth with a sharper focus on food, private label and new formats.

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Hey Friends,

It’s good to be back. I popped away for a little vacation during the kid’s spring break last week to Seabrook Island. We usually stay at Kiawah when we go but this time we ventured on the other side of the island to check it out. A good reset is often great for the creative spirit. Perhaps I missed it but the fear of airport madness for us was worse than the reality (although Kansas City and Charleston aren’t necessarily huge hubs)…..spring break and a DHS budget standoff make for the perfect storm.

There is something about traveling that gives you a really good sense of the retail world. Traveling through the airport, Parke sweatshirts seem to be the “in-the-know teen” uniform. We often visit the Sanctuary on Kiawah, which is undoubtedly one of my favorite places in the world to hang out, and it too has it’s own retail influence……By mid-afternoon, the terrace fills with a very specific ecosystem: Peter Millar vests zipped with quiet confidence, Gucci loafers, and Lilly Pulitzer dresses in colors bright enough to signal passing boats. They gather not so much to relax as to participate in a delicate social choreography, where the true sport isn’t golf, but the subtle art of appearing effortlessly affluent while holding a $25 cocktail. I love it, I love the feeling, and I love that my kids can run around like hooligans and I’m not judged for having a mid-day cocktail or three.

A lot happened in retail over the last week.

This week’s stories all point to a market that’s still growing, but evolving fast. Brands are expanding, consumers are spending, and companies are getting sharper about how they scale. The common thread is discipline. Whether it’s a niche fashion label entering new categories or a legacy retailer finding new distribution, everyone is playing more strategically. From Aimé Leon Dore’s move into womenswear to Peloton’s push into commercial and Build-A-Bear’s Walmart expansion, growth is increasingly about meeting customers where they are. At the same time, companies like Lululemon and Torrid are adjusting to a more normalized environment.

Let’s get into it……

Aimé Leon Dore is reportedly preparing to open a new flagship while also moving into a formal women’s collection. That second move may be the bigger story. Founder Teddy Santis has built the brand into a cultural force with a tight assortment, limited drops, and a strong point of view rooted in New York nostalgia. Until now, the brand has largely operated in a men’s and unisex lane, even as female demand has grown organically. A dedicated women’s line signals a shift from niche streetwear into a broader lifestyle positioning, closer to brands like Ralph Lauren. Combined with physical retail expansion, this is less about adding stores and more about building a world customers want to live in. Aimé Leon Dore is transitioning from cult favorite to scaled luxury player, and doing it without losing its identity.

The National Retail Federation is forecasting 4.4% retail sales growth in 2026, pushing total sales to $5.6 trillion. That’s a step up from both last year’s performance and the 10-year average of 3.6%. In 2025, retail sales reached $5.4 trillion, with holiday alone surpassing $1 trillion, showing just how resilient the consumer has been. But the backdrop is far from perfect. A softening labor market, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions are all creating headwinds. NRF is betting that underlying consumer fundamentals and higher tax refunds will help offset that pressure. Retail isn’t slowing down, but it is becoming more dependent on macro tailwinds. Growth is there, just with less margin for error.

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Retail is undergoing a fundamental shift in how products are discovered and purchased, and the creator community is at the center of that transformation. Social platforms have become the new storefronts, where creators introduce products, build trust with audiences, and turn content into commerce in real time. What once looked like influencer marketing has evolved into a powerful retail channel, with creators acting as modern-day merchandisers, sales associates, and brand storytellers. The relationship between retail and the creator community has shifted from experimental to essential. In 2025 and 2026, social commerce data shows that creators do more than raise awareness. The result is a symbiotic relationship: retailers gain authentic reach and higher conversion, while creators gain meaningful revenue opportunities tied directly to the products their audiences love.

Social commerce itself is exploding. Globally, the market was valued at about $125.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $159 billion in 2026, with strong year-over-year growth as more platforms integrate shopping experiences directly into feeds. This rapid expansion reflects how social platforms have become true commerce channels, not just discovery tools. Nearly 55 percent of buying decisions are influenced by creators on social platforms, and live shopping formats boost conversion likelihood by more than 40 percent. These trends underscore why creators are central to retail strategies in the current digital economy.

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Hey Friends,

Direct-to-consumer brand Quince is reportedly raising a new Series E funding round that could value the company at roughly $11.5 billion, according to private market data platforms. If the valuation holds, it would push the affordable luxury retailer into rare “decacorn” territory, one of the few direct-to-consumer brands to cross the $10 billion mark in recent years. The round follows a massive $200 million Series D raise in 2025, which valued the company at $4.5 billion and was led by Iconiq Capital.

Quince has stood out in a retail environment where many venture-backed DTC brands have struggled to scale profitably. The company operates a “manufacturer-to-consumer” model, sourcing directly from factories that produce for luxury brands and selling similar goods without traditional retail markups. The strategy allows Quince to offer products like cashmere sweaters, luggage, jewelry, and home goods at dramatically lower prices than legacy luxury brands.

Growth has been rapid. Revenue was estimated at roughly $221 million in 2023 and $340 million in 2024, with some projections suggesting the company is approaching $700 million in annual sales as it expands into new categories including furniture, beauty, and supplements.

Quince may be emerging as one of the few venture-backed retail brands that successfully cracked the DTC profitability puzzle, positioning it as a potential IPO candidate and a new competitor to both luxury brands and value disruptors like Shein.

Target is lowering prices on about 3,000 products this spring, with discounts ranging from 5% to 20% across categories like apparel, bedding, footwear, pantry staples, and baby products. The move is designed to attract “busy families,” a customer group the retailer says will be central to its growth strategy. Leadership says the company lost focus on this demographic in recent years and is now doubling down on value and convenience to bring them back. Baby products in particular are a priority as the retailer looks to rebuild loyalty with young households.

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Hey Friends,

From mixed retail sales data to major strategic shifts across fashion, luxury, and technology, today we are discussing how companies are navigating a consumer environment that remains steady but increasingly selective. We will look at what the latest spending data says about where shoppers are pulling back and where they are still opening their wallets, how brands like Fabletics and Levi’s are reshaping their portfolios, why Saks Global is dramatically shrinking its store footprint, and what OpenAI’s latest commerce pivot signals about the future of AI driven shopping.

Let’s get into it……..

Let’s start with some industry figures shall we? The United States Census Bureau reported total U.S. retail and food services sales of $733.5 billion in January 2026. Sales declined 0.2 percent compared with December but were still 3.2 percent higher than January 2025, reflecting continued but uneven consumer spending. For the three month period from November 2025 through January 2026, total sales increased 2.9 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.

Performance across retail categories was mixed. Motor vehicle and parts dealers saw sales drop 0.9 percent month over month, while gasoline stations declined 2.9 percent. Electronics and appliance stores fell 0.6 percent from December but remained up 2 percent year over year. Clothing and accessories stores dropped 1.7 percent month to month but grew 3 percent compared with last year. Sporting goods, hobby, and bookstore sales also fell 1.2 percent from December while still rising 3.2 percent year over year.

Some sectors showed modest gains. Food and beverage stores increased 0.2 percent from December and were up 1.4 percent annually. Furniture and home furnishings rose slightly month over month by 0.7 percent but were still down 3.5 percent compared with January 2025.

Online retail continued to be one of the strongest performing segments. Non store retailers posted 10.9 percent year over year growth, while miscellaneous store retailers grew 10.8 percent. Meanwhile, food service and drinking establishments generated $92.2 billion in January sales, representing a 3.9 percent increase from the same month last year.

Retail sales across sectors tracked by industry analysts rose 5.7 percent year over year in January to $243.5 billion, according to data from the United States Department of Commerce. E-commerce continued to lead growth, increasing 8.6 percent to $127.2 billion, while apparel sales rose 4 percent to $20.2 billion. Other categories showed mixed results: sporting goods sales climbed 2.8 percent, general merchandise increased 3.2 percent, and electronics grew 1.6 percent. However, several sectors struggled. Home furnishings declined 3.5 percent to $10.1 billion, and department store sales fell nearly 10 percent year over year, highlighting ongoing pressure on traditional retail formats. Analysts noted the data may be more backward looking than usual because reporting delays followed the federal government shutdown in late 2025. Economists at Wells Fargo said early indicators suggest February spending may soften slightly. Retail experts say consumers remain selective and value driven, with some homeowners delaying furniture purchases amid concerns about tariffs and inflation. At the same time, stronger sales at building supply stores and lower mortgage rates could signal improving activity in the housing market later in the year.

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What a week it’s been….I had the chance to catch up with this week and was in awe about the community he is creating. To see his passion for mentorship and desire to help and be a resource to others is truly inspiring.

We have a ton of Walmart news, a potential Sak’s rebound (still a long way away), and more CPG companies diving into the world of “everything needs protein”. We will dive into some health and wellness trends as we analyze the opening of Reforming Pilate’s new Flatiron Studio and as we wrap we’ll check-in on the latest from Victoria’s Secret.

Let’s get into it……

After a U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff levies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a growing list of apparel and lifestyle brands including Allbirds, Kohl’s and PacSun have filed cases seeking refunds with interest for duties paid. This legal action reflects broader frustration in retail over unpredictable trade policy and cost pressures retailers have faced since tariffs surged in 2025. While refunds could provide some relief, new levies proposed under updated legal authority could dampen the benefit.

Reforming Pilates is expanding its footprint with a major flagship location in New York City, converting a historic carriage house in the Flatiron area into a three story Pilates studio. The facility, called RP Townhouse, will span more than 7,000 square feet and is expected to become the largest Pilates studio in the United States.

Pilates is one of the fastest growing segments in boutique fitness, attracting both younger consumers and older wellness focused audiences. By investing in a large flagship location and distinctive real estate, Reforming Pilates is positioning itself as a premium destination brand, reflecting a broader trend where fitness operators are building experiential studios that function more like lifestyle hubs than traditional gyms.

The space is designed to offer multiple workout environments including reformer based classes and mat sessions, allowing the brand to serve a higher volume of members while offering a more premium studio experience. The expansion builds on Reforming Pilates’ existing locations in New York and Florida as the company looks to capitalize on the surging demand for Pilates and boutique fitness.

eBay Inc. is reducing its workforce by about 800 employees, roughly 6% of its global headcount, as it restructures following its $1.2 billion acquisition of Depop and pivots toward recommerce and AI-driven growth areas. The cuts come amid broader cost-management trends in tech and retail, where companies are realigning resources toward priority business segments while trimming legacy roles.

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Ordering and Personalization

Ordering is moving beyond the traditional counter and drive-thru. AI powered self ordering kiosks are already live in brands like Taco Bell and McDonald’s where customers interact with touchscreen menus that remember preferences and suggest add-ons based on past choices. Mobile apps powered by artificial intelligence and data analytics let frequent visitors skip lines entirely and receive tailored deals and recommendations. Voice ordering at the drive-thru is being tested by several chains with natural language processing that can understand accents and conversational speech to improve order accuracy.

Some Examples:

1. Burger King — AI Assistant for Service Quality
Burger King is rolling out an AI-powered tool called Patty that lives in employee headsets. It provides real-time guidance on tasks like recipe preparation, inventory levels, and customer interactions. The AI also detects whether employees use polite greetings such as “please” and “thank you” to help improve hospitality rather than monitor individual performance. This kind of on-the-job support helps staff deliver consistent service and reduces mistakes.

2. Taco Bell — AI-Assisted Drive-Thru
Taco Bell has been experimenting with AI voice technology in drive-thrus to handle orders and improve speed and accuracy. By automating the ordering dialogue, the system can reduce staff workload during busy periods and help customers get through the line faster.

3. Shake Shack — Digital Ordering & Kiosks
Shake Shack has integrated self-service kiosks into many of its restaurants and seen a large share of sales driven by digital channels (mobile app, kiosks, web). These tools let guests customize orders, pay, and check out without waiting in line, which improves throughput and satisfaction.

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Amazon and OpenAI have announced a sweeping multi-year strategic partnership that positions both companies at the center of the next era of artificial intelligence. The agreement sees Amazon investing $50 billion in OpenAI, starting with $15 billion up front and another $35 billion to follow once performance and development conditions are met. This investment is part of a broader $110 billion funding round for OpenAI that also includes major commitments from Nvidia and SoftBank, valuing the AI pioneer at roughly $730 billion. The two companies will deepen their technical collaboration by co-creating a Stateful Runtime Environment for building advanced AI applications on Amazon Web Services (AWS) and by making AWS the exclusive third-party cloud distributor for OpenAI’s Frontier enterprise platform.

Under the deal, OpenAI will commit to consuming around 2 gigawatts of AWS’s Trainium AI chip capacity, and the companies will cooperate on developing custom AI models tailored for Amazon’s customer-facing services. This could range from more intelligent Alexa capabilities to more advanced shopping tools, and it reflects Amazon’s strategy of leveraging generative AI across core parts of its business.

What This Means After Amazon’s Recent Layoffs

The announcement comes amid a challenging period for Amazon’s workforce. In early 2026 the company cut roughly 16K corporate jobs, bringing total reductions to around 30K across tech and corporate functions as part of broader restructuring efforts that began in 2025. Amazon executives framed these layoffs as part of an effort to streamline operations, reduce bureaucracy, and redirect resources into high-priority areas like cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

The juxtaposition of large investment in AI infrastructure and significant staff cuts highlights a clear strategic pivot. With AI tools increasingly capable of automating tasks that once required large teams, Amazon’s leadership appears focused on efficiency and future growth driven by automation. Critics argue this signals a broader shift in how companies view human labor in the face of emergent AI capabilities.

Impact on Retail

For retail, this partnership could have profound long-term implications:

• Personalized Shopping Experiences: Amazon may integrate OpenAI’s advanced models to power more intuitive search, recommendation, and conversational shopping experiences, making it easier for customers to find products and get tailored suggestions.

• AI-Driven Commerce Tools: Generative AI agents could help customers plan purchases, compare products, handle returns, and interact with store services across devices and channels, potentially reshaping the online shopping journey.

• Competitive Pressure on Retailers: As Amazon leverages deeper AI integration, traditional brick-and-mortar and e-commerce competitors may be pushed to adopt similar technologies or risk falling behind in personalization, logistics optimization, and customer service automation.

• Operational Efficiency: Behind the scenes, AI could improve inventory forecasting, dynamic pricing, and supply chain planning. For retailers, these tools can lower costs and improve responsiveness to demand shifts, although they may also accelerate workforce automation in roles tied to routine tasks.

Analysts note that while immediate retail-facing innovations are not fully defined, the collaboration lays the groundwork for more powerful AI across the e-commerce ecosystem. Amazon’s ability to tailor custom OpenAI models for its services could give it an edge in delivering next-generation retail experiences that blend commerce, AI assistance, and contextual intelligence.

As Amazon balances aggressive AI investment with workforce cuts, the retail landscape will likely see both opportunities and challenges unfold. AI-enhanced tools may drive new kinds of customer engagement and operational performance, but they also raise broader questions about labor, automation, and the future of work in the retail sector.

Hey Friends,

Happy Monday and welcome to another edition of TWIR. I hope this email finds you well on the other side of what I am hoping is the last of the wintery weather.

Today we’re covering a major shift at the top as Amazon surpasses Walmart in annual revenue for the first time in over a decade, signaling the power of diversified digital platforms; a significant tariff ruling where the Supreme Court blocked President Donald Trump from using emergency powers to impose broad global tariffs, a decision welcomed by the National Retail Federation; Aritzia acquiring Fred Segal and reviving its iconic Los Angeles flagship as a bet on heritage and experiential retail; eBay buying Depop from Etsy to double down on younger resale shoppers; Costco testing a seasonal mint sundae in a rare food court change alongside St. Patrick’s promotions from McDonald's; restructuring at Walgreens following its acquisition by Sycamore Partners; a meaningful revenue rebound at Wayfair; expansion plans from IKEA across the U.S.; and continued turnaround efforts at Kohl's as it leans further into value messaging.

Let’s get into it……..

Let’s start by checking in on the tariff situation……The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 against President Donald Trump, finding that he did not have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to impose broad, open ended global tariffs. In an opinion written by Chief Justice John Roberts, the Court held that the Constitution gives Congress alone the power to lay and collect tariffs, and that such taxing authority cannot be delegated through vague statutory language. The ruling rejected the administration’s argument that declaring a national emergency unlocked sweeping tariff powers absent explicit congressional approval.

The decision marks a significant setback for Trump’s trade policy, particularly tariffs justified on trade deficits and fentanyl trafficking. Business groups including the National Retail Federation welcomed the ruling, saying it provides clarity for supply chains and urging lower courts to facilitate refunds to importers. While the decision curtails the use of emergency powers for broad tariffs, the administration retains authority to impose more targeted duties under other statutes, such as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

A battle for the ages…..Amazon has overtaken Walmart to become the world’s largest company by annual revenue for the first time in over a decade. For its 2025 fiscal year, Amazon reported approximately $716.9 billion in revenue, narrowly ahead of Walmart’s $713.2 billion, ending Walmart’s 13-year run at the top of the global sales rankings. Amazon’s sales edge reflects its diversified business model, which combines e-commerce with strong contributions from cloud computing (AWS), advertising, and third-party services, while Walmart’s revenue remains rooted more heavily in traditional retail and grocery sales. The shift underscores how digital platforms and tech-enabled services are reshaping the scale and influence of global corporations.

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Amazon’s Layoffs Signal a Shift Toward Efficiency and an AI-First Operating Model

Amazon’s ongoing wave of layoffs has become a clear signal of how one of the world’s most influential platforms is reshaping itself for the next phase of growth. Beyond headline job cuts, the reductions point to a fundamental rethinking of management layers, accountability, and how work gets done inside large organizations increasingly shaped by AI.

Most recently, Amazon confirmed a new round of job cuts impacting roughly 16,000 employees globally. The announcement followed an internal communications error that inadvertently revealed the layoffs before an official statement was made. The update, first reported by Reuters, comes as Amazon accelerates its push toward efficiency, faster decision making, and AI-driven innovation.

What happened…….

Amazon is eliminating approximately 16,000 roles across its global operations, according to Beth Galetti, Senior Vice President of People Experience and Technology. The disclosure followed a prematurely sent internal email to some AWS employees that referenced the layoffs before they were formally announced.

The company said the changes are part of a broader organizational reset first outlined in October 2025, aimed at reducing management layers, increasing ownership, and removing internal friction. Some teams completed restructuring last year, while others finalized plans more recently, triggering this latest round of cuts.

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Welcome back! As you may have noticed, I decided to take the last two weeks off to regroup and come back refreshed, but I’m back and more ready than ever to bring you the latest in retail content.

We have missed a lot together so without further delay, let’s get into it……

December retail sales data paints a nuanced picture of the U.S. consumer heading into 2026. Overall spending was relatively flat month over month, suggesting shoppers are becoming more selective after years of inflation. Unit volumes declined in some discretionary categories even as dollar sales held up, indicating that price increases rather than demand growth are driving topline performance.

At the same time, year-over-year holiday sales still showed modest growth, particularly in apparel, beauty, and general merchandise. Consumers are not pulling back entirely but they are prioritizing value, promotions, and necessity-driven purchases. This reinforces the idea that shoppers remain resilient but increasingly disciplined, trading down where possible and delaying non-essential purchases.

The bottom line: Retailers can no longer rely on pricing power alone. Winning in 2026 will require sharper value propositions, targeted promotions, and better inventory discipline.

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reinforces a long-running concern in retail and supply chain economics. Tariffs intended to pressure foreign manufacturers are largely being absorbed domestically. The analysis shows that between 86 and 94 percent of tariff costs are paid by U.S. importers and ultimately passed through to consumers via higher prices. Foreign exporters have absorbed only a small share of the impact, and in many cases none at all.

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